virToad: simulating the spatiotemporal population dynamics and management of a global invader

Abstract Context The cane toad ( Rhinella marina ) is one of the most globally significant and well-studied invasive alien species, detrimental impacts its invasions warrant design application decision support tools. While many models have been developed for guiding policies addressing invasions, none reliably predict species’ population dynamics at scales relevant to on-the-ground management. Objectives We describe virToad —an individual-based life-history simulator toad. then illustrate ’s ability forecast toad’s spatiotemporal local- landscape-scales, potential improving management responses invasions. Methods designed make an emergent consequence fitness-maximising behavioural mechanistic constraints (e.g., water availability, kin selection), actions. used simulate in absence management, under alternative strategies implemented across a spectrum effort: hand-capturing trapping juveniles adults, fencing waterbodies, chemically suppressing tadpoles. Results produced plausible predictions densities, detection probabilities, distributions, spatial segregation. Simulation experiments indicated that efficacy competing actions varied significantly, only moderate high effort adults had suppress Conclusion open-source, rigorous, extensible platform will enable researchers practitioners defensibly landscape-scale outcomes.